English Transcript (中文全文在下方阅读)
JULIA: Alright thank you so much Dr. Lio, the next set of questions are actually about the prospects of a COVID-19 vaccine, and some of the ongoing drug trials. One of the community members asked: I heard that a vaccine against covid-19 will take a year to manufacture. Will we all get herd immunity and what percentage of the population needs to have been infected for there to be herd immunity.
DR. LIO: It's right that the vaccine will likely take at least 12 months to develop, and that’s, you know, running things at record time, which means it might be ready maybe by next summer if we’re being optimistic. And then, we have to make sure that everyone is able to get the vaccine and all that. It’s gonna take some time. We’re gonna be living with the virus for some time. About herd immunity, what that means is that most of the population is immune to the infectious disease so that the virus does not spread. So, for example, if you have 80% of the population that’s immune, that’s 4 out of 5 people. Imagine 1 person gets sick from the virus, then 4 out of the 5 people that that person is in contact with will block the virus from spreading. So, the percent that you need in the population that’s immune to have herd immunity depends on how infectious the virus is. So for something that’s very infectious, you need a greater number, a greater percent of the population that needs to be immune. So far there’s a range that we, that experts have said for COVID, maybe around 65-80% of the population needs to be immune to have herd immunity. We don’t have exact numbers to how infectious this virus is so far, but that’s the rough estimate of that.
中文视频全文
茱莉亚：好的，非常感谢 Lio 医生！正好，接下来的一组问题是关于新冠病毒疫苗的前景，以及一些正在进行的药物试验。其中一位社区成员问：我听说抗新冠的疫苗需要一年的时间才能制造出来。我们是否都会获得群体免疫，以及需要感染多少比例的人群才能获得群体免疫力？
刘医生：疫苗可能至少需要 12 个月的时间来开发，而且这还要是在全速研究的状况下。这意味着，乐观估计的话，可能明年夏天以前我们就能确保每个人都能种植疫苗了。所以还是需要一些时间。这段时间内我们会和病毒共存。群体免疫的意思是通过大部分人群对传染病免疫而使病毒不扩散。比如说，假如80% 的人群对病毒免疫，也就是 5 个人里的 4 个人免疫。那么想象一下 ，如果某一个人感染了病毒，该人接触的 5 个人中的 4 个人都可以阻止病毒的继续传播。具体需要百分之多少的人口免疫才能获得群体免疫取决于病毒的传染性，病毒的传染性越强，需要的百分比就越大。到目前为止，专家预计需要65-80%的人口对冠状病毒有免疫力才能获得群体免疫。但是我们不知道确切的数字，我们还没有确切的数字来说明这种病毒的传染性，我们只有对它的粗略估计。